🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.