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Back in the start of the year, with Donald Trump’s campaign vows to end the war in Ukraine in under 24 hours” still vivid in minds, there was genuine unease in Moscow over Trump’s plans. After Mr. Trump mused that significant levels of Tariffs, Duties, and Restrictions” on Russia could be required, one prominent pro-war Moscow commentator wrote: “It is better to prepare for the worst. Before long, we’ll reflect on Biden’s term with nostalgia, like a warm period.”

Unfulfilled Threats and Missed Opportunities

How wrong can you be? Since then, the US president has consistently spoken the talk without managing to following the walk. In May, after Vladimir Putin rejected a 30-day truce, and negotiation talks in Turkey went nowhere, a devastating” US sanctions package did not to appear. An 8 August deadline for Mr Putin to consent to a ceasefire somehow turned into a red carpet welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump praised a figure sought for atrocities as he stepped off from his plane. The “severe consequences” warned of by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks failed to peace never occur.

Emboldened Moves and Allied Vulnerabilities

Emboldened, Mr Putin has accordingly persisted to prosecute his war aims in Ukraine, and probe for Nato weaknesses. The previous week’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory exposed inadequate Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were quickly scrambled to counter cheap suicide devices that are priced around $10,000 each to produce. It also sent a warning of possible intensification in the event of any future “reassurance force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. Such challenge called for a strong and unified response, applying the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has to date refused to consider. Instead the US president seems, once again, to prefer bullying his European allies to targeting Mr Putin. In a statement which reeked of insincerity, Mr Trump declared over the weekend that the US was “ready” to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, but only if certain improbable conditions were met.

Impractical Requirements and Economic Pressures

Aiming for a significant economic prize, Washington is demanding that the EU must boost its imports of US LNG at a rate that analysts judge undoable. Other demands include the imposition by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has declined to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Observers looking on the positive side in Brussels believe that Mr Trump’s pressure may convince Maga-friendly governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their heavy dependence on Russian energy imports. That is extremely unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to court the kind of economic response from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to retreat from a full-blown trade war not long ago.

Ominous Developments and Absence of Movement

Throughout this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to press Mr Trump down on decisive action. But from the unproductive Alaska talks to his latest distracting tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an ominous upping of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being steadily undermined by a president who, in this context, barks but never acts.